![]() ![]() Gibbs' running mate, David Montgomery, is certain for an offensive role, and that's likely to come on early downs and near the goal line, especially considering Gibbs is smaller and a terrific asset in the passing game. We've seen plenty of success from mid-to-late first-round RBs (Doug Martin, Najee Harris and Josh Jacobs all ran for at least 1,150 yards), but we've also had a few duds (Mark Ingram, David Wilson and Rashaad Penny were held below 500 yards). Gibbs barely missed the top 10 after Detroit selected him No. Even if he defers some carries to impressive second-year RB Tyler Allgeier, Robinson won't be short massive volume and should put up similar numbers to those previous high-pick backs. Each of them finished as a top-10 fantasy running back as a rookie, and only McCaffrey (who did most of his damage as a receiver) was under 229 carries. Tracing back to 2012, we've had six running backs selected in the top 10: Ezekiel Elliott (1,631 rushing yards), Saquon Barkley (1,307), Todd Gurley (1,106), Leonard Fournette (1,040), Trent Richardson (950) and Christian McCaffrey (435). Robinson is the major standout here after he was selected with the No. Tyjae Spears, Tennessee Titans: 303 yards, 2 TDs Zach Charbonnet, Seattle Seahawks: 479 yards, 3 TDsĥ. Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts: 609 yards, 5 TDsĤ. Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions: 738 yards, 7 TDsģ. Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons: 1,118 yards, 8 TDsĢ. ![]() Levis (second-round pick) and Bennett (fourth-round) could get some late-season starts in relief of Ryan Tannehill or Matthew Stafford, respectively, if their teams aren't playoff contenders.ġ. More scrambles, of course, means fewer pass attempts. Richardson's passing numbers are a bit lower, but as we'll get to later, that's partially because he's expected to add substantial value with his legs. Note that, of the 37 QBs drafted in the first round since 2011, only nine reached 20 passing TDs as rookies. If we conservatively project 15 starts for Young and Stroud and take their underwhelming supporting casts into account, projections near those recent league averages make sense. Those 12 averaged 3,389 yards and 17.4 touchdown passes. Zoning in on Young and Stroud, 12 QBs picked either first or second overall since 2011 appeared in at least 10 games as a rookie. Of the 16 QBs picked in the top four, 11 started in Week 1 and three others took over by Week 5, leaving Jared Goff (Week 11) and Trey Lance (Jimmy Garoppolo's backup) as the exceptions. From 2011 to 2022, 31 of 37 first-round QBs (84%) took over as the starter prior to Week 10, including 17 (46%) who started in Week 1. The history of the position tells the story. Let's get this out of the way quickly: Barring injury, Young (first overall), Stroud (second) and Richardson (fourth) are going to play early and often as rookies, and it won't be a surprise if all three are under center in Week 1. Stetson Bennett, Los Angeles Rams: 522 yards, 3 TDs Will Levis, Tennessee Titans: 629 yards, 3 TDsĥ. Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts: 2,889 yards, 16 TDsĤ. Stroud, Houston Texans: 3,348 yards, 17 TDsģ. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers: 3,553 yards, 19 TDsĢ. I update them often leading up to the start of the season.ġ. And for full statistical outlooks, you can head over to our projections page to sort and filter through the entire league. These team and player projections are my own, compiled through a process that is both quantitative (league, team, coaching and player trends) and qualitative (projected depth chart placement and role). Let's take a look at the top-five projected leaders among rookies in a variety of categories for the 2023 season. Stroud and Anthony Richardson? What are reasonable expectations for Bijan Robinson? And who will pace all rookies in tackles and sacks? Which newly drafted players will lead the pack in major statistical categories? How many yards should we expect to see from first-round QBs Bryce Young, C.J. First-year players tend to experience a learning curve, but we will see plenty of standouts right out of the gate. That means we can start to project expectations for this year's batch of rookies. It has been nearly a month since the 2023 NFL draft, and we now have a much better grasp of what each team's roster core will look like this season. NFL, NFL Draft, Carolina Panthers, Houston Texans, Atlanta Falcons, Detroit Lions, Seattle Seahawks Ranking top five projected NFL rookie leaders by stat categories You have reached a degraded version of because you're using an unsupported version of Internet Explorer.įor a complete experience, please upgrade or use a supported browser
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